Re: [sc] Probabilistic Risk Assessment



Re: [sc] Probabilistic Risk Assessment

From: Peter Bernard Ladkin <ladkin_at_xxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2011 08:15:30 +0200
Message-ID: <4DEC7082.3010605@xxxxxx>
On 6/5/11 8:57 PM, ajrae@xxxxxx wrote:
> Is anyone aware of any published work empirically addressing any aspect of
> probabilistic risk assessment other than expert judgement?

I am not sure what counts as "expert judgement", but large amounts of industrial FTA was/is based on 
stastistical-data-based reliability estimates for individual components.

The problem with FTA is/was the independence assumptions (they don't deal with common-cause failure, 
meaning here one cause for more than one "trigger" failure in the FT) in any principled way), and 
the application to systems with components whose failure rates are not very well estimable.

PBL

Peter Bernard Ladkin, Professor of Computer Networks and Distributed Systems,
Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
Received on Mon 06 Jun 2011 - 07:15:36 BST