Re: Risk Analysis



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Robert Hale (100020.721(at)CompuServe.COM)
Mon, 02 Jun 1996 19:14:41 EDT


Hi, I have been involved in projects where we used safety assessment tools (either FMECA for simple projects or FTA & Event trees with F-N curves) to assess the degree of the risk. From this we could assign a cost factor associated with the risk to dertermine the likely cost to the business should the hazard occur. If a number of scenarios are modelled in this way then it is possible to determine either likely absolute costs of each scenario, or the likely change in costs between different options (i.e. how safety cost effective the change could be). This information could then be used with other cost benefit studies (customer benefit, reliability, maintenance costs etc.) to arrive at an overall cost benefit analysis for the project. This also has the benefit of being able to target (limited) expenditure to the areas of highest risk (or hazard), or areas where the best safety benefit could be obtained. Surely this is part of ALARP. The key to the question is 'What is the cost of safety'. In broad terms this considers the financial impact to the business if the hazard were to occur (both the practical costs arising directly from the incident, any legal costs involved, paying fines or damages, replacing assets etc. AND also the hidden costs such as negative publicity). I can see that in some industries, such as Nuclear, hazards are black and white with little room in the middle for ALARP, but for industries where ALARP plays a big role (e.g. railways, automotive) I would suggest that a form of safety cost benefit analsys would be beneficial. I have applied these techniques sucessfully within a Railway company but I do not now have direct access to the sort of information you need, but if you are interested then I could give you more details. Robert Hale. On Track Ltd (Safety Consultants). 100020.721(at)compuserve.com http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/Robert_Hale


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